Actual result
R+0.4
Final polls said
D+2.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+3.6
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+2.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+3.6 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | Multi-Quest International | R+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Kitchens Group | D+11.0 | 11.4 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Kitchens Group | 2008-11-18 | 400 | D+11.0 | 11 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-11-17 | 400 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-11-17 | 648 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Multi-Quest International | 2008-11-07 | 140 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| The Kitchens Group | 2008-11-06 | 600 | D+10.0 | 10 |