VotePredictor
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Louisiana District 5 election, 2026

Democratic nominee TBD vs. Republican nominee TBD on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Republican favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+27.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+34.5
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±6.6 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Nominee not yet identified

The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.

Other listed democratic candidates: Patricia Moore, Antonio Wilson, Dan McKay, Patricia Moore.

Republican

Nominee not yet identified

The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.

Other listed republican candidates: Gabe Firment, Misti Cordell, Michael Echols, Stewart Cathey Jr., Austin Magee, Omar Dantzler, Gabe Firment.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for LA-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Michael EcholsREP$3.2M raised
Spent $2.3MCash on hand $889kDebts $1.6M0% from donors under $200Self-funded $2.4M
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. ECHOLS, MICHAEL CHARLES$2.4M
  2. ECHOLS VICTORY FUND$122k
  3. PRICE, TEDDY R.$12k
  4. COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS$10k
  5. FULTON, SAM B. JR.$10k

Industries

  1. Self-Employed & Freelance$49k
  2. Retired$46k
  3. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$42k
  4. Manufacturing & Industrial$28k
  5. Legal & Professional Services$9k

States

  1. LA$447k
  2. TX$7k
  3. MS$5k
  4. FL$4k
  5. OH$4k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Misti CordellREP$659k raised
Spent $458kCash on hand $200kDebts $207k1% from donors under $200Self-funded $207k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. CORDELL, MISTI SMITH$207k
  2. MIREMONT, DANIEL$11k
  3. WHITE, HARVEY III$10k
  4. BRIDGES, MATT$7k
  5. CORDELL, SUSAN$7k

Industries

  1. Retired$72k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$51k
  3. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$11k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$11k
  5. Government Relations and Lobbying Services$9k

States

  1. LA$386k
  2. FL$12k
  3. CA$7k
  4. AR$7k
  5. TX$7k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Gabe FirmentREP$454k raised
Spent $391kCash on hand $63k2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. SHELTON, FRANKIE$8k
  2. ASHY, ALTON$7k
  3. BEST BUY INDUSTRIES, LLC$7k
  4. FOUNTAIN, R. KEITH$7k
  5. ITG STRATEGIES, LLC$7k

Industries

  1. Self-Employed & Freelance$55k
  2. Retired$44k
  3. Energy, Utilities & Mining$16k
  4. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$10k
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$9k

States

  1. LA$283k
  2. TX$12k
  3. MS$5k
  4. AZ$1k
  5. FL$500
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Stewart Cathey Jr.REP$246k raised
Spent $148kCash on hand $98k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. EVANS OIL COMPANY LLC$10k
  2. BASS, AMBER MRS.$7k
  3. BASS, WESTON LANE MR.$7k
  4. BEST BUY INDUSTRIES LLC$7k
  5. BENSON, GAYLE MRS.$5k

Industries

  1. Homemaker$36k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$18k
  3. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$17k
  4. Defense & Aerospace$7k
  5. Retired$4k

States

  1. LA$141k
  2. AL$11k
  3. TX$10k
  4. VA$2k
  5. OH$1k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Dan McKayDEM$121k raised
Spent $116kCash on hand $5kDebts $42k0% from donors under $200Self-funded $42k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. HENLEY, DONALD$7k
  2. RIDDLE, ROBERT$4k
  3. GOLD, LESLIE$3k
  4. HERN, GLORIA$3k
  5. RAMSEY, HERSCHEL$2k

Industries

  1. Retired$49k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$7k
  3. Unemployed$3k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$641
  5. Education & Academia$195

States

  1. LA$20k
  2. CA$10k
  3. VA$8k
  4. TX$5k
  5. CO$4k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Antonio WilsonDEM$71k raised
Spent $40kCash on hand $31kDebts $23k53% from donors under $200Self-funded $23k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE OF THE INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MACHINISTS &$5k
  2. GENCO, CHARLES V$1k
  3. GOLD, LESLIE$700
  4. KOEPKE, MARILYN$500
  5. SEFTON, RAQUEL$500

Industries

  1. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$5k
  2. Unemployed$2k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$1k
  4. Retired$750
  5. Legal & Professional Services$500

States

  1. CA$2k
  2. LA$1k
  3. MA$700
  4. IL$500
  5. MD$500
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Patricia MooreDEM$23k raised
Spent $19kCash on hand $4kDebts $11k14% from donors under $200Self-funded $11k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. 1ST GENERATION MEDIA$2k
  2. FISHER, LATONDRA$2k
  3. WILLIAMS, RODERICK$2k
  4. STEVENS, CRAIG$500
  5. CONWAY, LOTTIE$450

Industries

  1. Self-Employed & Freelance$500
  2. Unemployed$500
  3. Government$250

States

  1. LA$5k
  2. TX$1k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Austin MageeREP$11k raised
Spent $11kCash on hand $18032% from donors under $200Self-funded $1k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. MAGEE, KIMBERLY$1k
  2. MMC MATERIALS$1k
  3. MAGEE, AUSTIN$600
  4. MATTHEWS, MARSHA$515
  5. MCELVEEN, CHANCE$515

States

  1. LA$3k
  2. FL$489
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Omar DantzlerREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for LA-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Louisiana's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2002Rodney M. Alexander(D)D+0.6

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: LA-4 · LA-6