Actual result
R+30.4
Final polls said
R+24.7
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+26.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+26.8 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | R+24.7 | 5.8 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-11-16 | 600 | R+24.7 | 6 |