Actual result
D+10.5
Final polls said
D+12.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnMessage Inc. | D+10.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fleming & Associates | D+12.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+12.6 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+13.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Kiley & Company | D+19.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-10-19 | 385 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2010-10-16 | 400 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| Kiley & Company | 2010-10-13 | 500 | D+19.0 | 8 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2010-09-21 | 400 | D+10.0 | 1 |