Democratic
Dan Schwartz
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Andy Harris favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+11.0
96%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+17.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Andy Harris
Incumbent representative for MD-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MD-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MD-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Maryland's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
MAGA Rep. Threatens Journalists With Legal Trouble For Recording His Debate Crash Out
Maryland's staunch MAGA House Rep. Andy Harris has been desperately dodging in-person town halls since 2023, and now we know why. Harris went head-to-head in a debate with his Democratic opponent, Dan Schwartz, last night in Cambridge, Maryland, where both c…
Crooksandliars.com · October 14, 2026
Republican Tries to Get Journalist Arrested After Disastrous Debate
Republican Representative Andy Harris couldn’t handle a debate audience laughing at his explanation for high gas prices.On Tuesday night, during a debate in Cambridge, Maryland, with his Democratic challenger Dan Schwartz, both candidates were asked about Pre…
The New Republic · October 14, 2026
Republican Scolds Crowd for Laughing at Him Over High Diesel Prices Comment
Republican Representative Andy Harris lashed out on Tuesday night during a debate with Democrat Dan Schwartz in Maryland when he was laughed at for his comments about gas prices. The debate was hosted by the League of Women Voters in Cambridge in Maryland’s F…
Biztoc.com · October 14, 2026
'You are rude!' MAGA rep loses it as constituents laugh at his excuse for gas prices
Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD) lost his cool at his congressional debate on Tuesday, as his constituents laughed at his excuse for why gas prices have spiked so heavily since the start of the year.The debate between Harris, a far-right MAGA lawmaker who chairs the H…
Raw Story · October 14, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗