Democratic
Dan Schwartz
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Andy Harris favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+16.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+16.52026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Andy Harris
Incumbent representative for MD-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MD-1. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MD-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Maryland's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Rage as Trump's 'bizarre' rain-tax ruling roils waters on Chesapeake Bay
Just months after federal officials joined Chesapeake Bay states in December to renew their pledge to restore the nation’s largest estuary, President Donald Trump on Wednesday rescinded an Obama-era executive order that called for federal leadership in the ef…
Raw Story · September 18, 2026
Maryland's lone congressional Republican blasts Moore's redistricting push as alleged 2028 White House play
Rep. Andy Harris claims Gov. Wes Moore is pushing a Maryland ballot amendment to eliminate his district in furtherance of presidential ambitions.
Fox News · August 7, 2026
'He knows he's a loser': GOP fans flames as Dems shoot down Trump's primetime address
WASHINGTON — The 2020 election just won’t go away, and not just because of President Donald Trump and his primetime address Thursday evening.Some of the president’s prominent allies on Capitol Hill are eagerly fanning the flames ahead of this year’s midterm e…
Raw Story · July 16, 2026
Four Democrats Help Republicans Take Food Aid From Women and Children
House Republicans, joined by four Democrats, voted Thursday to cut food aid for pregnant women and children.The House passed a bill 213–210 that reduced funding for the Department of Agriculture and other federal agencies. The bill includes a $141 million cut…
The New Republic · June 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗