Democratic
Dan Schwartz
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Maryland District 1 election, 2026
Dan Schwartz vs. Andy Harris. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Andy Harris favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+12.5
98%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+17.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging R+13.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+12.2.
Republican
Andy Harris
Incumbent representative for MD-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Andy HarrisREP · incumbent$2.7M raised
Spent $2.2MCash on hand $1.2M23% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$400k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$91k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$40k
- Legal & Professional Services$39k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$22k
States
- MD$756k
- FL$131k
- TX$85k
- CA$47k
- AR$43k
Dan SchwartzDEM$1.2M raised
Spent $1.2MCash on hand −$4kDebts $27k38% from donors under $200Self-funded $16k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$360k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$37k
- Retired$29k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$20k
- Not Reported$15k
States
- MD$448k
- CT$62k
- DC$36k
- FL$18k
- KY$15k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MD-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Maryland's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Maryland Voters Hand Democrats Huge Win on Redistricting
Maryland voters approved a ballot measure Tuesday amending the state’s Constitution to allow Democratic-led congressional redistricting. The measure, known as Question 3, passed 60 percent to 40 percent, with 77 percent of votes counted.The measure does not e…
The New Republic · November 4, 2026
Local Anchor Excoriates GOP Congressman Over Confrontation With Student Journalist: ‘Not Exactly All You Did!’
Mikenzie Frost grilled GOP Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD) this week, following a viral confrontation between Harris and University of Maryland journalist Cat Murphy. The post Local Anchor Excoriates GOP Congressman Over Confrontation With Student Journalist: ‘Not Ex…
Mediaite · October 16, 2026
Republican Congressman Defends Call to Arrest Student Journalist
Republican Representative Andy Harris is defending his threat to have a student journalist arrested following a disastrous debate earlier this week. Baltimore TV station Fox 45 asked the Maryland congressman about how he flipped out at Capital News Service re…
The New Republic · October 16, 2026
MAGA lawmaker's 'embarrassing' excuse for on-camera meltdown leads to ridicule
Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD) was ridiculed en masse Friday after the Maryland Republican doubled down on his outburst earlier this week in which he lashed out at his constituents for laughing at him and threatened a student journalist with arrest for recording…
Raw Story · October 16, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗