Actual result
D+10.0
Final polls said
D+4.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+5.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+2.3 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2014-10-28 | 410 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2014-10-18 | 302 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2014-10-06 | 370 | R+5.0 | 15 |