Actual result
R+5.3
Final polls said
D+3.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+3.8
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WPA Intelligence | EVEN | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+3.8 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Missouri State University Center for Social Science and Public Policy Research | D+6.9 | 12.2 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State University Center for Social Science and Public Policy Research | 2010-10-24 | 157 | D+6.9 | 12 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2010-10-17 | 300 | EVEN | 5 |