Democratic
Cliff Johnson
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Trent Kelly favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+31.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+37.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Trent Kelly
Incumbent representative for MS-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Johnny Baucom · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MS-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MS-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Mississippi's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Mississippi civil rights attorney seeks congressional seat held by GOP's Trent Kelly
A Democratic civil rights attorney who has advocated for better treatment of prisoners and testified against Mississippi’s diversity, equity and inclusion ban says he is running for Congress
ABC News · October 2, 2025
From CHIPS to Ships: The Next Step in the U.S.-ROK Alliance
The Chinese Naval fleet has become the world’s largest, threatening the U.S. maritime dominance and unrestricted freedom of navigation in East Asia and the South China Sea. Although the U.S. Navy wants to build 381 ships by FY2042, public shipyards have their…
The National Interest · January 20, 2025
From CHIPS to Ships: The Next Step in the U.S.-ROK Alliance
Tags: CHIPS Act, Defense Industrial Base, Jones Act, Shipbuilding, and South Korea From CHIPS to Ships: The Next Step in the U.S.-ROK Alliance January 20, 2025 By: Thomas Byrne, and Joseph Lim Share <ul> <li> Share this lin…
The National Interest · January 20, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗