Democratic
Donald Norcross
Incumbent representative for NJ-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Donald Norcross favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+30.3
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+20.22026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Damon Galdo
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NJ-1. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NJ-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New Jersey's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Every Democrat Who Voted to Defund Schools That Boycott Israel
On Thursday, 33 Democrats joined Republicans to pass a law that would take federal funding away from academic institutions involved in any kind of boycott of or divestment from Israel. The legislation passed 237–169.The Protect Economic and Academic Freedom A…
The New Republic · September 3, 2026
How to Get a Labor Rights Bill Through a GOP House
In Oscar Wilde’s 1895 comedy The Importance of Being Earnest, the epigram-spouting Lady Bracknell is told by Jack Worthing, her daughter’s suitor, that he’s lost both his parents. To this, the lady replies imperiously: “To lose one parent, Mr. Worthing, may b…
The New Republic · June 12, 2026
86 Democrats Condemn Socialism as Zohran Mamdani Meets With Trump
In a country where the cost of living skyrockets while wages remain low, where a few broken bones can leave you in financial ruin, and where the young feel they have no chance at any upward mobility, 86 House Democrats joined Republicans to pass a resolution …
The New Republic · November 21, 2025
Congressional Trading Report: Rep. Donald Norcross Sold Over $15K In Toronto-Dominion Bank Stock
Records from September 4, 2025 indicate that Representative Donald Norcross of New Jersey made a sale of Toronto-Dominion Bank TD, valued between $15,001 and $50,000, with the transaction dated June 4, 2024 and filed in September. As of now, Toronto-Dominion …
Biztoc.com · September 5, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗