Democratic
Maggie Goodlander
Incumbent representative for NH-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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New Hampshire District 2 election, 2026
Maggie Goodlander vs. Lily Tang Williams. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Maggie Goodlander favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+15.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+4.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging D+17.3Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+14.0.
Republican
Lily Tang Williams
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Robbie Mahrou · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Maggie GoodlanderDEM · incumbent$5.0M raised
Spent $3.2MCash on hand $1.8M12% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- GOODLANDER VICTORY FUND$898k
- MAJORITY FUND$160k
- DEMOCRACY SUMMER 2026$41k
- FABRIKANT, CHARLES$21k
- BORAO, NOELLE$11k
Industries
- Unemployed$1.1M
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$339k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$240k
- Legal & Professional Services$191k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$62k
States
- NY$600k
- NH$587k
- MA$393k
- CA$325k
- DC$176k
Lily Tang WilliamsREP$1.4M raised
Spent $1.1MCash on hand $472kDebts $120k52% from donors under $200Self-funded $120k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$360k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$32k
- Defense & Aerospace$13k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$8k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$6k
States
- NH$135k
- CA$39k
- TX$37k
- FL$36k
- MA$33k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NH-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New Hampshire's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
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Raw Story · October 14, 2026
Former New Hampshire Libertarian Affiliate Says It Supports Assassinating Elected Democrats
The Libertarian Party of New Hampshire, which was disaffiliated by the national Libertarian Party earlier this year, said this week that it supports the “assassination of basically every elected Democrat” in the state, drawing condemnation from U.S. Rep. Magg…
Freerepublic.com · September 25, 2026
Former New Hampshire Libertarian Affiliate Says It Supports Assassinating Elected Democrats
The Libertarian Party of New Hampshire, which was disaffiliated by the national Libertarian Party earlier this year, said this week that it supports the “assassination of basically every elected Democrat” in the state, drawing condemnation from U.S. Rep. Magg…
Freerepublic.com · September 25, 2026
'Cannot go unpunished': Backlash after state Libertarian Party 'calls for murder' of Dems
Democrats and libertarians alike condemned the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire after it said it supports the assassination of "basically every elected Democrat" in the state.The party posted the message on X Tuesday. The post, which the account later edite…
Raw Story · September 23, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗