Democratic
Analilia Mejia
Incumbent representative for NJ-11. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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New Jersey District 11 election, 2026
Analilia Mejia vs. Joe Hathaway. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Analilia Mejia favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+17.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+9.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Joe Hathaway
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Alan Bond · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NJ-11. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Analilia MejiaDEM · incumbent$2.2M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $115kDebts $44k32% from donors under $200Self-funded $11k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- HORNSTEIN, NORBERT$12k
- POLONE, GAVIN$11k
- CRAMER, TOM$10k
- WIGGERT, SARA$7k
- ALI, MOIZ$7k
Industries
- Unemployed$236k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$102k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$27k
- Technology & Communications$22k
- Legal & Professional Services$20k
States
- NJ$381k
- NY$98k
- CA$82k
- DC$68k
- IL$32k
Joe HathawayREP$838k raised
Spent $795kCash on hand $42k12% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- SPIROPOULOS, CHRISTOPHER$18k
- HADAR, AMIR$14k
- ROSEN, ADEENA$14k
- WEISS, JIM$14k
- JANOFF, ALLAN$11k
Industries
- Retired$181k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$39k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$36k
- Not Reported$26k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$14k
States
- NJ$527k
- NY$55k
- CA$19k
- FL$14k
- NV$11k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NJ-11; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New Jersey's 11th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Centrist Dems Dismiss the Progressive Wave at Their Peril
The energy and votes unleashed this year by the insurgent new left of the Democratic Party would surely be welcomed by the Dems’ leadership after a long hangover from 2024 and setbacks at the hands of President Donald Trump, right?Not exactly. These developme…
Common Dreams · November 1, 2026
"Abolish & Replace ICE": Rep. Analilia Mejia Blasts ICE for Secretly Using NJ Warehouse
Earlier this week, ICE confirmed it had secretly used a federal government warehouse in Roxbury, New Jersey, to stage and to process detentions in September, despite an order from a judge barring the site’s use until an environmental study was complete. ”ICE …
Democracy Now! · October 16, 2026
Democrats unite around Hegseth impeachment push
The News Congressional Democrats aren’t eager to impeach Donald Trump. Pete Hegseth is a different story. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his leadership circle remain reluctant to lean too far into talking about impeaching the president if they re…
Semafor.com · October 9, 2026
NJ school district forced students to keep image of Dem Rep on their computers, parent says
A New Jersey public school forced students to keep an image of Dem Rep. Analilia Mejia on their school-issued computers to celebrate Hispanic Heritage Month two months before election day, an angry parent has alleged. The screen background was reportedly set …
Freerepublic.com · September 24, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗