Democratic
Yvette Clarke
Incumbent representative for NY-9. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Yvette Clarke favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+47.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+41.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Joel Azumah
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for NY-9. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for NY-9; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in New York's 9th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Dems Want to Regulate AI. But Will AI Money Divide Them?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems want to regulate AI. But will AI money divide them?Democrats are loudly deman…
The New Republic · September 11, 2026
'Sadistic and Cruel': Democratic Lawmakers Rail Against $20 Million for ICE's Electric Shock Gloves
Democrats in both chambers of Congress this week have joined rights advocates in forcefully denouncing plans for US Immigration and Customs Enforcement to spend up to $20 million on "gloves that can deliver painful electric shocks."The Department of Homeland …
Common Dreams · August 13, 2026
13 Dems Help House GOP Pass Stock Trading Ban That Includes Trump Attack on Voters
The US House of Representatives on Wednesday held a series of key votes, including one in which over a dozen Democrats helped Republicans pass a purported congressional stock trading ban, even though the GOP tacked on a voter suppression provision demanded by…
Common Dreams · July 22, 2026
'Huge Win for the Constitution' as House Finally Passes Iran War Powers Resolution
Raucous applause erupted in the House of Representatives on Wednesday after US lawmakers passed a war powers resolution aimed at ending Donald Trump's illegal war of choice against Iran—although skeptics cautioned that the measure will likely have little impa…
Common Dreams · June 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗