Actual result
R+1.7
Final polls said
R+5.4
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+2.3 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | McLaughlin & Associates | EVEN | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Magellan Strategies | R+4.2 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | R+6.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Siena College | R+6.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Global Strategy Group | D+8.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2011-09-10 | 664 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Siena College | 2011-09-07 | 886 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2011-09-01 | 2055 | R+4.2 | 2 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2011-08-31 | 300 | EVEN | 2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2011-08-30 | 400 | D+8.0 | 10 |
| Siena College | 2011-08-05 | 501 | D+6.0 | 8 |