VotePredictor
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Ohio District 1 election, 2026

Greg Landsman vs. Eric Conroy on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Greg Landsman favored
Likely D · predicted margin D+6.3
88%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+2.6
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
3, averaging D+5.3
Forecast spread
±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+7.5.

Republican

Eric Conroy

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Nathan Weise · Libertarian

Polls

The polls behind it

4 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
RedBox Research (via Wikipedia)10-23D+9.0
Quantus Insights (via Wikipedia)10-21D+5.0
Torchlight Strategies (via Wikipedia)10-02D+2.0
Quantus Insights08-24D+3.3

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Greg LandsmanDEM · incumbent$5.7M raised
Spent $5.3MCash on hand $503k6% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. HOUSE VICTORY PROJECT 2026$693k
  2. DEMOCRACY SUMMER 2026$49k
  3. JEFFRIES BATTLEGROUND PROTECTION FUND$41k
  4. LANDSMAN VICTORY FUND$37k
  5. CLARK FRONTLINE VICTORY FUND$12k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$1.0M
  2. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$241k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$193k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$120k
  5. Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$52k

States

  1. OH$816k
  2. CA$390k
  3. NY$264k
  4. MA$169k
  5. MD$128k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Eric ConroyREP$2.4M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $293kDebts $160k20% from donors under $200Self-funded $326k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. CONROY, ERIC$375k
  2. CONROY OHIO VICTORY$156k
  3. GROW THE MAJORITY$37k
  4. HERCHE, DAVID F$14k
  5. BOYER, BARBARA$13k

Industries

  1. Retired$149k
  2. Manufacturing & Industrial$15k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$14k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$13k
  5. Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$11k

States

  1. OH$112k
  2. TX$20k
  3. FL$18k
  4. MN$15k
  5. VA$15k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OH-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Ohio's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2022Greg Landsman(D)D+5.5
2020Steve Chabot(R)R+7.2
2018Steve Chabot(R)R+4.4
2010Steve Chabot(R)R+5.5
2008Steven L. Driehaus(D)D+5.0
2006Steve Chabot(R)R+4.5
2000Steve Chabot(R)R+8.4

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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: NY-9 · OH-10