Democratic
Kristina Knickerbocker
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Ohio District 10 election, 2026
Kristina Knickerbocker vs. Mike Turner on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Turner favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+2.9
70%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+7.92026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging R+3.0Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+2.7.
Republican
Mike Turner
Incumbent representative for OH-10. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Thomas McMasters · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Mike TurnerREP · incumbent$1.3M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $325k4% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$102k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$43k
- Defense & Aerospace$39k
- Legal & Professional Services$33k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$23k
States
- OH$359k
- FL$51k
- VA$36k
- AL$26k
- DC$16k
Kristina KnickerbockerDEM$1.0M raised
Spent $882kCash on hand $133kDebts $18k22% from donors under $200Self-funded $7k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$231k
- Retired$58k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$53k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$46k
- Not Reported$32k
States
- OH$171k
- NY$142k
- CA$117k
- MA$29k
- DC$23k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OH-10; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Ohio's 10th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Turner, Hudson among the latest GOP losers as Democrats reach 250 seats in the House
Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), a longtime lawmaker and former chair of the House Intelligence Committee, lost his bid for reelection to Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker, The Associated Press projected Thursday afternoon, the latest Republican in red territory to b…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
'It could be quite a brutal evening': GOP braces for some once-unthinkable losses
Republicans are bracing for a brutal election night, convinced they're set to face some previously unthinkable losses in deep-red Trump territory as key battleground races hang on a knife's edge.House Republicans are privately discussing not just if they'll l…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 30, 2026
DCCC launches ads against Mike Turner in red Ohio district
House Democrats’ campaign arm is launching its first ad buy against seven-term GOP Rep. Mike Turner in his western Ohio district as they seek to turn up the pressure on Republicans in once-safe red seats. The DCCC is dropping separate six-figure buys on two c…
Biztoc.com · October 20, 2026
GOP Rep: No One Cares About Trump's Corruption For Midterms
Ohio Congressman Mike Turner told CBS' Face The Nation that voters do not care about Republican corruption even though poll after pool shows the country is very upset that Trump, his family, and friends are enriching themselves by using the White House and hi…
Crooksandliars.com · October 19, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗