Democratic
Jerrad Christian
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Ohio District 12 election, 2026
Jerrad Christian vs. Troy Balderson on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Troy Balderson favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+23.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+30.42026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Troy Balderson
Incumbent representative for OH-12. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for OH-12. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Troy BaldersonREP · incumbent$2.2M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $1.1M1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$70k
- Not Reported$63k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$42k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$38k
- Legal & Professional Services$36k
States
- OH$589k
- VA$59k
- DC$40k
- TX$30k
- CA$19k
Jerrad ChristianDEM$140k raised
Spent $120kCash on hand $24k59% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$26k
- Retired$11k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$685
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$325
States
- OH$42k
- CA$2k
- MD$850
- NY$525
- MA$520
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for OH-12; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Ohio's 12th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
'Ask me in 60 days': GOP lawmakers mysteriously refuse to pledge whether they'll run again
More lawmakers could be joining the Republican exodus from the U.S. House of Representatives.About two dozen GOP House members have already said they don't plan to seek re-election, and NOTUS surveyed more than 120 members – about half the House Republican Co…
Raw Story · December 18, 2025
Ohio Lawmaker Offers Bill To Codify Trump’s Energy Policies
By Jacob Adams, The Daily Signal | October 23, 2025 A Republican congressman from Ohio is seeking to win the next battle over America’s energy supply before it starts. In legislation introduced this week, Rep. Troy Balderson, R-Ohio, is seeking to codify Trum…
Biztoc.com · October 24, 2025
RFK Jr. Says Trump Admin Going to Encourage All Americans to Use Wearables
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) will soon start a massive advertising blitz to encourage uptake of wearables such as fitness trackers among Americans, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said on June 24. “We’re about to launch one of the …
Freerepublic.com · June 25, 2025
Health Secretary Wants Every American To Be Sporting a Wearable Within Four Years
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced a major federal campaign to promote wearable health tech, aiming for every American to adopt a device within four years as part of a broader effort to "Make America Healthy Again." Gizmodo re…
Slashdot.org · June 25, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗