Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
D+7.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+7.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | GQR | D+8.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+9.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-25 | 632 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2008-10-21 | 500 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| GQR | 2008-10-19 | 400 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2008-09-30 | 400 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-20 | 640 | D+5.0 | 4 |