Actual result
R+0.5
Final polls said
D+12.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+10.5
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+10.5 | 10.9 | ✗ |
| 2 | RT Strategies | D+12.0 | 12.5 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+12.0 | 12 |