Actual result
D+24.2
Final polls said
D+25.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cooper & Secrest | D+26.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+19.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+18.3 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+18.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-01 | 541 | D+19.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-17 | 570 | D+32.0 | 8 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2006-10-03 | 442 | D+18.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-27 | 516 | D+13.0 | 11 |
| Cooper & Secrest | 2006-09-26 | 504 | D+26.0 | 2 |