Actual result
R+6.5
Final polls said
R+0.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+8.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+0.1 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Impact Research | D+6.0 | 12.5 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2012-10-09 | 500 | D+6.0 | 13 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-26 | 400 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| Impact Research | 2012-09-11 | 500 | EVEN | 7 |