Actual result
R+22.6
Final polls said
R+24.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+25.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+25.3 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+26.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-27 | 656 | R+26.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-15 | 656 | R+23.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-27 | 600 | R+29.0 | 6 |