Actual result
R+13.4
Final polls said
R+21.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+15.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-27 | 630 | R+15.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-19 | 630 | R+28.0 | 15 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-06 | 442 | R+22.0 | 9 |