Democratic
Rachel Wallace
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Pennsylvania District 9 election, 2026
Rachel Wallace vs. Dan Meuser. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Dan Meuser favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+29.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+38.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Dan Meuser
Incumbent representative for PA-9. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for PA-9. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Dan MeuserREP · incumbent$2.1M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $30kDebts $250k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- MEUSER VICTORY COMMITTEE$187k
- MOELLER, JAMES$13k
- ERWINE, MARY$11k
- MERICLE, KIM E$11k
- ROSADO, WILLIAM J$11k
Industries
- Retired$117k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$106k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$66k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$30k
- Legal & Professional Services$27k
States
- PA$610k
- FL$67k
- VA$55k
- NY$45k
- DC$22k
Rachel WallaceDEM$1.1M raised
Spent $895kCash on hand $251k23% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$216k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$88k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$36k
- Retired$34k
- Legal & Professional Services$29k
States
- PA$323k
- DC$119k
- VA$59k
- CA$38k
- MD$37k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-9; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 9th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
GOP lawmaker's Fox News bit instantly backfires over wild claim: 'An easy choice'
A GOP lawmaker's interview on Fox News instantly backfired Sunday after he uncorked a wild claim about the difference between Democrats and Republicans. Rep. Dan Meuser (R-PA) joined Fox News to discuss the upcoming midterm elections and argue that voters sho…
Raw Story · September 20, 2026
Every House Member Who’s Still Not at Work After a Five-Week Vacation
The House of Representatives has returned from its five-week summer vacation, but for more than three dozen members that extended break apparently wasn’t enough.According to the House clerk, 46 lawmakers failed to make it back to Washington in time for the fi…
The New Republic · September 1, 2026
First known congressional SpaceX stock buys surface after record IPO
Two members of Congress — Rep. Dan Meuser, R-Pa., and Rep. Gil Cisneros, D-Calif. — have disclosed that they or their family members bought SpaceX stock in the days after the company's historic initial public offering, according to publicly accessible House f…
Biztoc.com · July 4, 2026
First known congressional SpaceX stock buys surface after record IPO
Two members of Congress — Rep. Dan Meuser, R-Pa., and Rep. Gil Cisneros, D-Calif. — have disclosed that they or their family members bought SpaceX stock in the days after the company's historic initial public offering, according to publicly accessible House f…
Biztoc.com · July 3, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗