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Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Dan Meuser (R) won by about 19 points.
Actual result
R+19.5
Final polls said
R+21.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+21.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMiss
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.Grade B10-242018-10-242
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Dan Meuser (R) won, by about 19.5 points (R+19.5).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.