Democratic
Gabe Amo
Incumbent representative for RI-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Rhode Island District 1 election, 2026
Gabe Amo vs. Kellie Keenan. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Gabe Amo favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+27.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+22.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
2, averaging D+23.5Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+32.4.
Republican
Kellie Keenan
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Pedro DeSouza · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Gabe AmoDEM · incumbent$2.0M raised
Spent $889kCash on hand $2.0M2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$191k
- Legal & Professional Services$104k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$90k
- Not Reported$63k
- Technology & Communications$54k
States
- RI$504k
- DC$151k
- MA$101k
- NY$87k
- MD$49k
Kellie KeenanREP$15k raised
Spent $14kCash on hand $1kDebts $8k17% from donors under $200Self-funded $8k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- KEENAN, KELLIE$8k
- RHODE ISLAND GOP$1k
- SANBORN, MARY LOUISE T$500
- STEVEN, DEVLIN$500
- WOONSOCKET REPUBLICAN COMMITTE$500
Industries
- Retired$575
States
- RI$2k
- MA$275
- TX$250
Pedro DeSouzaIND$13k raised
Spent $13kCash on hand $112Debts $9k25% from donors under $200Self-funded $9k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- DESOUZA, PEDRO$370
- LANGLOIS, MICHAEL$250
- SOUZA, VICTOR$104
States
- RI$250
- MA$104
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for RI-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Rhode Island's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗