Democratic
Paige Cognetti
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Rob Bresnahan favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+3.5
69%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+6.82026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Rob Bresnahan
Incumbent representative for PA-8. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Lake Research Partners2026-06-23D+2.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-8; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 8th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Rage as Trump's 'bizarre' rain-tax ruling roils waters on Chesapeake Bay
Just months after federal officials joined Chesapeake Bay states in December to renew their pledge to restore the nation’s largest estuary, President Donald Trump on Wednesday rescinded an Obama-era executive order that called for federal leadership in the ef…
Raw Story · September 18, 2026
Pennsylvania 8: Paige Cognetti takes aim at a Republican seat in Trump country
Pennsylvania’s 8th District is a Republican-held seat in northeastern Pennsylvania that Democrats hope to make competitive. Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan is defending the district against Democrat Paige Cognetti, the mayor of Scranton. The race is closely tie…
The Times of India · September 18, 2026
GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan campaigns on data center limits while investing in industry
Pennsylvania Rep. Rob Bresnahan is promoting a bill to give data center-wary municipalities greater control over whether the facilities can be built, a message featured in a new television ad the Republican congressman is running in the Scranton and Wilkes-Ba…
Biztoc.com · September 11, 2026
Elon Musk doles out campaign cash in Pa. to Perry, 2 other GOP lawmakers in swing districts
The richest man in the world, who was laser-focused on delivering Pennsylvania for President Donald Trump in 2024, is wielding his wallet in the Keystone State once again to support Republicans in three swing congressional districts ahead of the midterms. Ame…
Freerepublic.com · September 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗