VotePredictor
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Pennsylvania District 8 election, 2026

Paige Cognetti vs. Rob Bresnahan. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Paige Cognetti favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+0.9
57%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+8.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
3, averaging D+4.0
Forecast spread
±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+2.6.

Democratic

Paige Cognetti

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

5 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
RedBox Research (via Wikipedia)10-23D+3.0
New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University (via Wikipedia)10-22D+5.0
Emerson CollegeGrade A-10-14D+4.0
Lake Research PartnersGrade D06-23D+2.0
Impact Research (via Wikipedia)Grade B-06-11D+1.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Paige CognettiDEM$7.5M raised
Spent $7.3MCash on hand $244k15% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. COGNETTI VICTORY FUND$177k
  2. DEM RISING 2026$83k
  3. COGNETTI STELSON VICTORY FUND$62k
  4. FLIPPABLE FOUR VICTORY FUND$48k
  5. BROOKS COGNETTI VICTORY FUND$34k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$2.8M
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$544k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$202k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$149k
  5. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$120k

States

  1. PA$1.3M
  2. CA$1.0M
  3. NY$683k
  4. MA$436k
  5. DC$231k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Rob BresnahanREP · incumbent$6.5M raised
Spent $5.8MCash on hand $733kDebts $677k12% from donors under $200Self-funded $60k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. GROW THE MAJORITY$756k
  2. TEAM ROB$642k
  3. DEFEND OUR MAJORITY$380k
  4. EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERS$311k
  5. BATTLEGROUND PA$124k

Industries

  1. Not Reported$643k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$126k
  3. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$108k
  4. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$26k
  5. Legal & Professional Services$25k

States

  1. PA$850k
  2. FL$126k
  3. TX$87k
  4. NY$76k
  5. CA$62k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-8; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Pennsylvania's 8th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2024Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr.(R)R+1.6
2022Matt Cartwright(D)D+2.5
2020Matt Cartwright(D)D+3.5
2018Matt Cartwright(D)D+9.3
2010Michael G. Fitzpatrick(R)R+7.0
2006Patrick J. Murphy(D)D+0.6

Candidate news

House's fate now hinges on 8 GOP incumbents — and they've all messed up

House Republicans can’t afford to make mistakes ahead of the upcoming midterm election — but that isn’t stopping them. As the majority party fights to keep its control of Congress, and protect President Donald Trump and his powerful allies from the investigat…

Raw Story · October 29, 2026
Johnson Sees An Unusual Force Driving Midterm Voters

By VIRGINIA GRACE MCKINNON, The Daily Signal | October 07, 2026 While campaigning for Rep. Rob Bresnahan in Hazleton, Pennsylvania, this week, House Speaker Mike Johnson compared the 2026 midterms to the election that followed the 9/11 terrorist attacks and s…

Biztoc.com · October 8, 2026
Pennsylvania Rep. Rob Bresnahan Calls Out Paige Cognetti for Firing Teachers, Pushing to Disarm Police: 'Cognetti and Her Allies Are Full of Baloney'

Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-PA) released a campaign ad slamming Scranton mayor and Pennsylvania Democrat congressional candidate Paige Cognetti over her record, stating that she "and her allies are full of baloney." The post Pennsylvania Rep. Rob Bresnahan Calls Ou…

Breitbart News · October 4, 2026
Rage as Trump's 'bizarre' rain-tax ruling roils waters on Chesapeake Bay

Just months after federal officials joined Chesapeake Bay states in December to renew their pledge to restore the nation’s largest estuary, President Donald Trump on Wednesday rescinded an Obama-era executive order that called for federal leadership in the ef…

Raw Story · September 18, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: PA-7 · PA-9