Democratic
Paige Cognetti
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Rob Bresnahan favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+1.9
62%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+8.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging D+2.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+4.3.
Republican
Rob Bresnahan
Incumbent representative for PA-8. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Lake Research Partners2026-06-23D+2.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for PA-8; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Pennsylvania's 8th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Johnson Sees An Unusual Force Driving Midterm Voters
By VIRGINIA GRACE MCKINNON, The Daily Signal | October 07, 2026 While campaigning for Rep. Rob Bresnahan in Hazleton, Pennsylvania, this week, House Speaker Mike Johnson compared the 2026 midterms to the election that followed the 9/11 terrorist attacks and s…
Biztoc.com · October 8, 2026
Pennsylvania Rep. Rob Bresnahan Calls Out Paige Cognetti for Firing Teachers, Pushing to Disarm Police: 'Cognetti and Her Allies Are Full of Baloney'
Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-PA) released a campaign ad slamming Scranton mayor and Pennsylvania Democrat congressional candidate Paige Cognetti over her record, stating that she "and her allies are full of baloney." The post Pennsylvania Rep. Rob Bresnahan Calls Ou…
Breitbart News · October 4, 2026
Rage as Trump's 'bizarre' rain-tax ruling roils waters on Chesapeake Bay
Just months after federal officials joined Chesapeake Bay states in December to renew their pledge to restore the nation’s largest estuary, President Donald Trump on Wednesday rescinded an Obama-era executive order that called for federal leadership in the ef…
Raw Story · September 18, 2026
Pennsylvania 8: Paige Cognetti takes aim at a Republican seat in Trump country
Pennsylvania’s 8th District is a Republican-held seat in northeastern Pennsylvania that Democrats hope to make competitive. Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan is defending the district against Democrat Paige Cognetti, the mayor of Scranton. The race is closely tie…
The Times of India · September 18, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗