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Toss-up · 2018 House
Texas House
In the 2018 Texas House race, Dan Crenshaw (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+7.3
Final polls said
R+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TargetPoint | R+9.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 92% | 0.007 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 75% | 0.064 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
TargetPoint2018-10-152
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Texas House race?
Dan Crenshaw (R) won, by about 7.3 points (R+7.3).
When was the 2018 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.