Actual result
R+7.3
Final polls said
R+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TargetPoint | R+9.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+14.9 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 92% | 0.007 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 75% | 0.064 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TargetPoint | 2018-10-15 | 435 | R+9.0 | 2 |