Democratic
Dan Barrios
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Texas District 32 election, 2026
Dan Barrios vs. Jace Yarbrough on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Jace Yarbrough favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+10.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+18.12026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Jace Yarbrough
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for TX-32. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jace YarbroughREP$1.3M raised
Spent $1.1MCash on hand $123kDebts $207k9% from donors under $200Self-funded $207k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$140k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$44k
- Legal & Professional Services$27k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$16k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$15k
States
- TX$360k
- NY$25k
- CA$23k
- VA$15k
- WY$14k
Dan BarriosDEM$160k raised
Spent $152kCash on hand $9k59% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$31k
- Legal & Professional Services$11k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$9k
- Not Reported$6k
- Retired$2k
States
- TX$97k
- AL$2k
- CA$2k
- MI$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for TX-32; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Texas's 32nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗