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Toss-up · 2018 House
Texas House
In the 2018 Texas House race, John Carter (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+2.9
Final polls said
R+13.2
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | R+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+14.7 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tarrance Group | R+21.0 | 18.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-0312
Tarrance Group2018-09-2418
Impact Research2018-09-181
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Texas House race?
John Carter (R) won, by about 2.9 points (R+2.9).
When was the 2018 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.