Actual result
R+2.9
Final polls said
R+13.2
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | R+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+14.7 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+16.9 | 14.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Tarrance Group | R+21.0 | 18.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-03 | 490 | R+14.7 | 12 |
| Tarrance Group | 2018-09-24 | 400 | R+21.0 | 18 |
| Impact Research | 2018-09-18 | 500 | R+4.0 | 1 |