Actual result
R+10.3
Final polls said
R+3.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer & Co. | R+6.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+3.8 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | EMC Research | R+1.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMC Research | 2004-10-14 | 400 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2004-10-08 | 800 | R+6.0 | 4 |