Actual result
R+4.8
Final polls said
R+1.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.1
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+1.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+5.1 | 9.9 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-23 | 608 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-12 | 633 | D+10.0 | 15 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-28 | 628 | D+15.0 | 20 |