Democratic
Becca Balint
Incumbent representative for VT-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Vermont District 1 election, 2026
Becca Balint vs. Gerald Malloy. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Becca Balint favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+35.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+32.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging D+30.3Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+42.2.
Republican
Gerald Malloy
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Suz Seymour · Independent
- Ryan Walton · Independent
- Phoenix Altair · Independent
- Adam Ortiz · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Becca BalintDEM · incumbent$1.2M raised
Spent $712kCash on hand $612k20% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$267k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$90k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$28k
- Legal & Professional Services$24k
- Technology & Communications$21k
States
- VT$348k
- DC$47k
- NY$35k
- MA$32k
- CA$23k
Gerald MalloyREP$190k raised
Spent $155kCash on hand $34kDebts $16k28% from donors under $200Self-funded $5k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$36k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$19k
- Not Reported$7k
- Technology & Communications$4k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$2k
States
- TX$27k
- VT$21k
- AZ$18k
- HI$9k
- CO$7k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VT-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Vermont's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Exclusive — Army Veteran Running for Congress: Vermont’s ‘Progressive Experiment Went Off the Rails,’ ‘Socialism Has Failed Vermont’
GOP congressional candidate Gerald Malloy, who is challenging Rep. Becca Balint (D), says Vermont’s “progressive experiment went off the rails.” The post Exclusive — Army Veteran Running for Congress: Vermont’s ‘Progressive Experiment Went Off the Rails,’ ‘So…
Breitbart News · August 24, 2026
Fox-Roku Deal: Lawmakers Call For Impartial DOJ Probe
Democratic politicians, led by U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren and U.S. Representative Becca Balint, raised concerns of “recent rubber-stamping of deals” that may violate antitrust laws and impede enforcement.
Hollywood Reporter · July 17, 2026
Lesbian congresswoman criticises Trump admin’s ‘homoerotic feelings towards men’
Vermont Rep. Becca Balint is taking aim at Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s new military testosterone initiative, arguing that the administration’s obsession with projecting hypermasculinity begs comparison to its continued attacks on LGBTQ+ people. Speaking …
Thepinknews.com · July 17, 2026
Proving He 'Does Not Care About Your Cost of Living,' Trump Calls Housing Bill 'Big Yawn'
Democrats in the US House of Representatives quickly fired back on Monday after President Donald Trump called pending affordable housing legislation a "big yawn" compared to the attack on voting rights that he wants Republicans to pass. Trump last Wednesday c…
Common Dreams · June 29, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗