Democratic
Becca Balint
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Becca Balint favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+32.8
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+33.02026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Gerald Malloy
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Phoenix Altair · Independent
- Adam Ortiz · Independent
- Suz Seymour · Independent
- Ryan Walton · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
University of New Hampshire2026-07-20D+38.0
University of New Hampshire2026-06-23D+31.0
Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for VT-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Vermont's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗