Democratic
Carmela Conroy
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Michael Baumgartner favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+5.2
83%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+11.02026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Michael Baumgartner
Incumbent representative for WA-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for WA-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for WA-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Washington's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Calls for Guardrails Grow as OpenAI Discloses 'Unprecedented' Autonomous Cyber Attack
In a striking incident that highlights the growing risks of unchecked advanced artificial intelligence development, ChatGPT maker OpenAI admitted Tuesday that one of its AI models autonomously breached the systems of the prominent open-source platform Hugging…
Common Dreams · July 22, 2026
Bipartisan Bill to Tighten Controls on Sensitive Chipmaking Equipment
WASHINGTON – Congressman Michael Baumgartner (WA‑05) introduced the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware (MATCH) Act, a bipartisan bill designed to...
House.gov · April 19, 2026
‘Listen here!’ MAGA eviscerates GOP lawmaker complaining about working late
Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-WA) took to social media Friday night to complain about having to work late and miss his child’s basketball game – and was subsequently dogpiled by a swath of MAGA supporters.The House worked late Friday night to pass its own ver…
Raw Story · March 28, 2026
'Malign' foreign adversaries may be infiltrating US colleges: Senate lawmakers
WASHINGTON — Members of a U.S. Senate panel expressed bipartisan consensus Thursday that the country should be cautious of “malign” foreign dollars flowing to American colleges and universities, with some Democrats also arguing recent funding cuts undermine t…
Raw Story · March 13, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗