Democratic
Carmela Conroy
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Michael Baumgartner favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+19.1
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+10.82026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Michael Baumgartner
Incumbent representative for WA-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Nate Powell · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for WA-5. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for WA-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Calls for Guardrails Grow as OpenAI Discloses 'Unprecedented' Autonomous Cyber Attack
In a striking incident that highlights the growing risks of unchecked advanced artificial intelligence development, ChatGPT maker OpenAI admitted Tuesday that one of its AI models autonomously breached the systems of the prominent open-source platform Hugging…
Common Dreams · July 22, 2026
Bipartisan Bill to Tighten Controls on Sensitive Chipmaking Equipment
WASHINGTON – Congressman Michael Baumgartner (WA‑05) introduced the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware (MATCH) Act, a bipartisan bill designed to...
House.gov · April 19, 2026
‘Listen here!’ MAGA eviscerates GOP lawmaker complaining about working late
Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-WA) took to social media Friday night to complain about having to work late and miss his child’s basketball game – and was subsequently dogpiled by a swath of MAGA supporters.The House worked late Friday night to pass its own ver…
Raw Story · March 28, 2026
'Malign' foreign adversaries may be infiltrating US colleges: Senate lawmakers
WASHINGTON — Members of a U.S. Senate panel expressed bipartisan consensus Thursday that the country should be cautious of “malign” foreign dollars flowing to American colleges and universities, with some Democrats also arguing recent funding cuts undermine t…
Raw Story · March 13, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗