Actual result
R+19.4
Final polls said
R+17.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+15.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+17.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+15.4 | 3.9 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-28 | 625 | R+17.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-04 | 442 | R+12.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-19 | 600 | R+14.0 | 5 |