Democratic
Adam Smith
Incumbent representative for WA-9. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Washington District 9 election, 2026
Adam Smith vs. Doug Basler. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Adam Smith favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+45.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+41.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Doug Basler
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for WA-9. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Adam SmithDEM · incumbent$2.2M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $627k5% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$318k
- Technology & Communications$170k
- Defense & Aerospace$140k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$107k
- Legal & Professional Services$87k
States
- WA$608k
- CA$206k
- VA$100k
- NY$63k
- MA$58k
Doug BaslerREP$44k raised
Spent $36kCash on hand $9kDebts $76014% from donors under $200Self-funded $760
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$8k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$6k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$260
States
- WA$17k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for WA-9; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Washington's 9th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗