Democratic
Mitchell Berman
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Bryan Steil favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+0.3
53%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+5.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
2, averaging D+0.5Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+1.3.
Republican
Bryan Steil
Incumbent representative for WI-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Impact Research2026-10-01D+1.0
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2026-09-23EVEN
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for WI-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Wisconsin's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
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Scheme to turn blue wave into tsunami includes a candidate who isn't even a Dem
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Raw Story · September 15, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗