Actual result
D+9.7
Final polls said
D+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+4.3 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+19.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | ccAdvertising | R+0.8 | 10.5 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-24 | 590 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-08 | 442 | R+0.8 | 11 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2010-09-19 | 400 | D+19.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-15 | 586 | D+3.0 | 7 |