Actual result
D+12.8
Final polls said
D+20.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | D+8.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+20.0 | 7.2 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-24 | 810 | D+20.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-06 | 838 | D+13.0 | 0 |
| Tarrance Group | 1998-09-08 | 500 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-08 | 811 | D+16.0 | 3 |