Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+27.5 — a 96% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Arkansas Democrat Hallie Shoffner Would Defund ICE, Tells Government ‘Don’t Be an A**hole’ on ImmigrationArkansas Democratic Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, who is challenging Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), said she would vote to defund ICE as it exists now and accused the government of treating immigrants, including “undocumented” immigrants, as enemies. The post Ar…
Breitbart News · Yesterday
Dem Senate nominee distances herself from Kamala Harris ahead of visit: 'Will not be attending'Hallie Shoffner pushed back on ties to former Vice President Kamala Harris and the national Democratic Party as she challenges Sen. Tom Cotton in Arkansas' Senate race.
Fox News · April 8, 2026
A sixth-generation farmer aims to weed out Sen. Tom Cotton - Arkansas TimesHallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer, is seeking to unseat Sen. Tom Cotton in her bid for U.S. Senate.
Arkansas Times · May 14, 2025
Arkansas Democrat Hallie Shoffner Would Defund ICE, Tells Government ‘Don’t Be an A**hole’ on ImmigrationArkansas Democratic Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, who is challenging Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), said she would vote to defund ICE as it exists now and accused the government of treating immigrants, including “undocumented” immigrants, as enemies. The post Ar…
Breitbart News · Yesterday
Transcript: GOPers Fume at Trump as Midterm Woes Grow: “He’s a Bully”The following is a lightly edited transcript of the July 8 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.Donald Trump t…
The New Republic · July 8, 2026
Sens. Cotton, Paul Rip SCOTUS Birthright Citizenship Ruling, Propose Constitutional Amendment Eliminating ItU.S. Senators Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Rand Paul of Kentucky are blasting the U.S. Supreme Court's birthright citizenshio decision The post Sens. Cotton, Paul Rip SCOTUS Birthright Citizenship Ruling, Propose Constitutional Amendment Eliminating It appeared…
Breitbart News · June 30, 2026
GOP senator warns Apple against using Chinese chipsUnited States Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas took to X on Monday to caution Apple against pursuing US approval to purchase Chinese memory chips that are on the blacklist from ChangXin Memory Technolog...
Biztoc.com · June 29, 2026
Pulte’s early ODNI cuts include dozens sent back to home agenciesSenate Intelligence Chairman Tom Cotton said the acting director of national intelligence told him about 45 to 50 career officers are being returned to their home agencies, while a smaller number of front-office personnel are leaving federal service.
Nextgov · June 24, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse | 2026-02-09 | 550 | R+22.0 |