Arkansas Senate
Tom Cotton (R) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Arkansas Senate race — about a 91% chance, winning by about 12 points in the projection, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 5 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 5 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+12.4 — a 91% Republican win.
Latest news
Dem Arkansas Senate nominee Hallie Shoffner calls attention to the farm crisisA new poll suggests the Arkansas Senate race is competitive. Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation Arkansas ...
Biztoc.com · August 21, 2026
Wait, Are Dems Ahead in ... Arkansas?You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDo Democrats have a chance to flip a Senate seat in Arkansas? One poll this week s…
The New Republic · August 21, 2026
Can A Farmer Really Pull Off An Upset In Arkansas?When a poll came out late last month that had Hallie Shoffner within the margin of error against loathsome scumbag Senator Tom Cotton (Cotton 46 - Shoffner 43), most of us just dismissed it as the sort of silliness one sees from both Republican and Democratic…
Crooksandliars.com · August 20, 2026
Shock Polls Show Republicans Behind in America's Reddest StatesRepublican senators are trailing challengers in two new polls from Arkansas and Idaho, two of President Donald Trump’s strongest states in the 2024 presidential election. In Arkansas, a Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll found Democratic Senate can…
Biztoc.com · August 20, 2026
Arkansas Democrat Hallie Shoffner Would Defund ICE, Tells Government ‘Don’t Be an A**hole’ on ImmigrationArkansas Democratic Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, who is challenging Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), said she would vote to defund ICE as it exists now and accused the government of treating immigrants, including “undocumented” immigrants, as enemies. The post Ar…
Breitbart News · July 9, 2026
- Wait, Are Dems Ahead in ... Arkansas?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDo Democrats have a chance to flip a Senate seat in Arkansas? One poll this week s…
The New Republic · August 21, 2026 - Can A Farmer Really Pull Off An Upset In Arkansas?
When a poll came out late last month that had Hallie Shoffner within the margin of error against loathsome scumbag Senator Tom Cotton (Cotton 46 - Shoffner 43), most of us just dismissed it as the sort of silliness one sees from both Republican and Democratic…
Crooksandliars.com · August 20, 2026 
Desperate Trump begs nemesis for help amid intra-MAGA infightingPresident Donald Trump, rattled by a string of embarrassing primary losses this year, is scrambling to save his endorsed candidate in South Carolina's Senate runoff – and turning to a surprising source for help.Sen. Darline Graham, appointed by Trump to finis…
Raw Story · August 14, 2026- Cotton Statement Following Passage of Lindsey Graham's Russia Sanctions Bill
Today, Senator Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) released the following statement after Senate passage of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026:
Globalsecurity.org · August 7, 2026 
GOP Senator Falsely Claims Abdul El-Sayed Made Offensive 9/11 Remark, Then BacktracksArkansas Sen. Tom Cotton wasn’t the only Republican to make the mistake.
HuffPost · August 6, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Arkansas Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Tom Cotton (R), with roughly a 91% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+12.4.
What do the polls say in the Arkansas Senate race?
There are 5 polls of this race. The most recent, from J.L. Partners (2026-08-18), showed R+16.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+12.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race?
Hallie Shoffner is the Democratic candidate; Tom Cotton is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Arkansas Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Arkansas Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Tom Cotton (R) is now favored at 91%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Arkansas Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.