Arkansas Senate
Tom Cotton (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Arkansas Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 20 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 3 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+20.5 — a 100% Republican win.
Latest news
A Prairie Populist in Crimson-Red ArkansasFarmer and Democrat Hallie Shoffner is taking on Big Ag in a long-shot Senate race against Republican Tom Cotton. The post A Prairie Populist in Crimson-Red Arkansas appeared first on The American Prospect.
The American Prospect · Today
Hannity's List Of Trump 'Top Accomplishments' Includes Putting Traitors' Names Back On Military BasesFox's Sean Hannity scrolled through a list of so-called Trump "top accomplishments" during an interview with Sen. Tom Cotton, and it's a doozy. While Hannity and Cotton took turns trashing Democrats and Cotton's opponent for the Senate in Arkansas, Hallie Sho…
Crooksandliars.com · September 24, 2026
Dem Senate Candidate: We Would Trade Five Americans for One Illegal AlienJust how much do Democrat pols loathe Americans? How strongly do they prefer the Third Worlders they invite in to displace us and/or loot us out of existence via the welfare state? Let’s ask Hallie Shoffner, Democrat nominee for the … Continue reading → The p…
Moonbattery.com · September 23, 2026
The Return of the Farmer PoliticianMany of the new Democratic candidates making a splash this cycle are the progressives who ran to the left of the party establishment in the primaries and defeated their more centrist counterparts. But there’s another intriguing trend that’s been obscured in a…
The New Republic · September 22, 2026
Arkansas Democrat Hallie Shoffner Doubles Down on Trading ‘Five Americans’ for One ‘Undocumented Immigrant’Arkansas Democrat U.S. Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner’s campaign is defending her comments about immigrant farm labor after she said farmers would trade five Americans for one ‘undocumented immigrant,’ but the campaign did not say whether or not Shoffner he…
Breitbart News · September 21, 2026
- A Prairie Populist in Crimson-Red Arkansas
Farmer and Democrat Hallie Shoffner is taking on Big Ag in a long-shot Senate race against Republican Tom Cotton. The post A Prairie Populist in Crimson-Red Arkansas appeared first on The American Prospect.
The American Prospect · Today 
The Bob Cesca Podcast: Clock BlockerToday's program from our podcasting affiliate, The Bob Cesca Show: Clock Blocker -- 28 days out, are we feeling good about November 3? Donald encouraged attacks against Los Angeles and San Diego. Donald doxed Tom Cotton over the Sunshine Protection Act and Da…
Littlegreenfootballs.com · October 6, 2026
Trump-pushed Sunshine Protection Act stalls in Senate as health experts warn of hidden dangersPresident Trump urged Senate passage of the Sunshine Protection Act to make daylight saving time permanent, citing economic and convenience benefits. Sen. Tom Cotton leads Republican opposition, citing failed 1974 experiment and safety concerns for children w…
Naturalnews.com · October 6, 2026- Senate Republican on Trump posting Cotton’s number: ‘From 0 to ahole in about 3 seconds’ - The Hill
Senate Republican on Trump posting Cotton’s number: ‘From 0 to ahole in about 3 seconds’The Hill Trump Urges People to Call Senator Tom Cotton Over Daylight Saving BillThe New York Times John Thune says ‘no clear path forward’ for clock-change billPolitico Pe…
Slashdot.org · October 6, 2026 
Trump Gives Bonkers Defense for Doxing Tom CottonThe president feels absolutely no remorse about doxing Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton.Donald Trump rationalized the stunning overstep while speaking with reporters Saturday, defending the decision to post Cotton’s personal phone number as a method to pressure hi…
The New Republic · October 5, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Arkansas Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Tom Cotton (R), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+20.5.
What do the polls say in the Arkansas Senate race?
There are 3 polls of this race. The most recent, from J.L. Partners (2026-08-18), showed R+16.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+20.5.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race?
Hallie Shoffner is the Democratic candidate; Tom Cotton is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Arkansas Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Arkansas Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Tom Cotton's (R) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Arkansas Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.