VotePredictor
all races

Arkansas Senate

Hallie Shoffner (D) vs Tom Cotton (R)

Forecast — win probability
Hallie Shoffner (D)
4%
(R) Tom Cotton
96%
Safe R · model margin R+27.5

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+27.5 — a 96% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.

Forecast over time

The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.

0255075100MarAprMayJunJul96% R4% D
Democrats 4% Republicans 96%

Latest news

Hallie Shoffner (D)
Tom Cotton (R)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

Polls (1)

PollsterDatenPoll
GrayHouse2026-02-09550R+22.0