Actual result
R+29.0
Final polls said
R+31.3
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gallup | R+30.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | R+32.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | R+24.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ciruli Associates | R+36.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallup | 2002-11-01 | 619 | R+30.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-01 | 500 | R+32.0 | 3 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2002-10-31 | 400 | R+36.0 | 7 |
| Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | 2002-10-30 | 500 | R+24.0 | 5 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2002-10-27 | 400 | R+36.0 | 7 |
| Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | 2002-10-24 | 500 | R+27.0 | 2 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2002-10-22 | 400 | R+37.0 | 8 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2002-10-21 | 666 | R+28.0 | 1 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2002-10-11 | 500 | R+43.0 | 14 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-10 | 500 | R+42.0 | 13 |
| Drake Research & Strategy, Inc. | 2002-10-06 | 500 | R+28.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-09-17 | 500 | R+38.0 | 9 |