Actual result
D+7.8
Final polls said
D+8.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gallup | D+8.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Opinion Research Associates | D+8.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | D+12.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-03 | 507 | D+12.0 | 4 |
| Gallup | 2002-11-01 | 616 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-01 | 679 | D+11.0 | 3 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2002-10-25 | 500 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2002-10-18 | 501 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-10 | 679 | D+0.2 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-09-19 | 507 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2002-09-18 | 504 | D+10.0 | 2 |