Actual result
D+0.2
Final polls said
R+0.2
9 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+0.1 | 0.3 | ✗ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | GQR | D+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Jim Meader (KELOLAND-TV) | D+3.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Gallup | R+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 6 | CBS News | R+3.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 7 | Zogby Analytics | R+4.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 8 | OnMessage Inc. | R+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-11-03 | 679 | R+0.1 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-03 | 500 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Gallup | 2002-11-01 | 685 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-01 | 500 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-10-28 | 500 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-26 | 805 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-10-25 | 500 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| GQR | 2002-10-22 | 553 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Jim Meader (KELOLAND-TV) | 2002-10-21 | 600 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| CBS News | 2002-10-10 | 874 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-10 | 500 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Jim Meader (KELOLAND-TV) | 2002-10-04 | 600 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2002-10-01 | 679 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-09-26 | 400 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-09-18 | 805 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-09-16 | 500 | D+3.0 | 3 |