Actual result
D+29.5
Final polls said
D+33.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+31.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+31.8 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+33.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 2004-10-13 | 600 | D+33.0 | 4 |