Actual result
R+4.7
Final polls said
R+4.0
16 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+3.7 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ciruli Associates | R+6.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gallup | R+6.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+3.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+7.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Zogby Analytics | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | American Research Group | R+1.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+9.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | FM3 Research | EVEN | 4.7 | ✗ |
Polls (26)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-31 | 600 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-31 | 705 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 626 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 625 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-27 | 602 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-10-26 | 500 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-23 | 602 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| FM3 Research | 2004-10-20 | 400 | EVEN | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-19 | 596 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-18 | 500 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2004-10-17 | 600 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-16 | 709 | R+1.8 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-16 | 666 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-10-15 | 500 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-10-15 | 500 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-15 | 630 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-06 | 598 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-05 | 630 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-05 | 666 | EVEN | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-04 | 709 | D+1.4 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-29 | 500 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-22 | 626 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2004-09-16 | 600 | R+12.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-16 | 500 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-09-12 | 500 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-12 | 600 | R+1.0 | 4 |