Actual result
R+21.5
Final polls said
R+20.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+19.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+22.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+19.4 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+19.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | R+19.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | R+28.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+10.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2004-10-23 | 400 | R+22.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-20 | 800 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-12 | 500 | R+10.0 | 11 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-26 | 500 | R+28.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-21 | 800 | R+13.0 | 8 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-10 | 600 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-08 | 500 | R+13.0 | 8 |