Actual result
D+4.8
Final polls said
D+3.1
14 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FM3 Research | D+5.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ciruli Associates | D+4.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+6.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Global Strategy Group | D+6.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+6.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+2.9 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Tarrance Group | D+2.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Zogby Analytics | D+8.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 10 | Gallup | D+1.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | EVEN | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+1.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-31 | 705 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-30 | 600 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 622 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-26 | 600 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-26 | 625 | EVEN | 5 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-10-26 | 500 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| FM3 Research | 2004-10-20 | 400 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-19 | 596 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2004-10-18 | 600 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-18 | 500 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2004-10-17 | 515 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2004-10-17 | 600 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-16 | 666 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-10-15 | 500 | R+5.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-06 | 594 | EVEN | 5 |
| Gallup | 2004-10-05 | 666 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-05 | 625 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-22 | 625 | R+5.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-16 | 500 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2004-09-16 | 600 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Tarrance Group | 2004-09-15 | 500 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-09-12 | 500 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2004-09-05 | 679 | D+6.0 | 1 |