Actual result
R+1.1
Final polls said
R+1.0
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+1.5 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | R+2.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+4.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | GQR | D+2.0 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 3.1 | ✗ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-25 | 800 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| GQR | 2004-10-25 | 640 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-25 | 500 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2004-10-23 | 400 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-20 | 800 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-12 | 500 | EVEN | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-27 | 679 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-26 | 500 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-21 | 800 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-08 | 679 | R+3.0 | 2 |