Actual result
D+14.9
Final polls said
D+11.0
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Constituent Dynamics/RT Strategies | D+13.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | D+13.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+12.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Opinion Research Associates | D+18.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+9.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+8.6 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Zogby Analytics | R+2.9 | 17.8 | ✗ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-04 | 549 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-29 | 500 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 507 | R+2.9 | 18 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2006-10-24 | 500 | D+18.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-23 | 500 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-23 | 572 | D+20.0 | 5 |
| Constituent Dynamics/RT Strategies | 2006-10-16 | 999 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | D+4.2 | 11 |
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 2006-10-12 | 761 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-11 | 500 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2006-09-28 | 500 | D+18.0 | 3 |
| Constituent Dynamics/RT Strategies | 2006-09-27 | 1002 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-25 | 493 | D+15.0 | 0 |