Actual result
D+16.8
Final polls said
D+15.6
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+13.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciruli Associates | D+19.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+20.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+13.4 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+12.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+12.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+22.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+22.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | R+0.2 | 17.0 | ✗ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 500 | D+20.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-31 | 661 | D+22.0 | 5 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-10-30 | 500 | D+22.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 583 | R+0.2 | 17 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-25 | 625 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-23 | 500 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2006-10-21 | 501 | D+19.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-21 | 594 | D+18.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | D+2.0 | 15 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-04 | 625 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2006-09-29 | 500 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-26 | 532 | D+17.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-19 | 500 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-09-11 | 500 | D+17.0 | 0 |