Actual result
D+54.1
Final polls said
D+34.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+28.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+34.0 | 20.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+28.3 | 25.8 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 301 | D+34.0 | 20 |